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FX Asia: China Holidays Pass, But Yuan Talk Here To Stay

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SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)–China’s weeklong May Day holidays have come and gone without a change to the country’s currency policy, but that hasn’t stopped analysts and traders from speculating that Beijing will let the yuan rise in the coming weeks and months.

China failed to loosen its hold on the currency during national holidays last week and a special trading session Sunday, as some had expected, prompting speculators Monday to unwind their short-term bets on a near-term revaluation of the yuan.

But prices of yuan non-deliverable forwards indicate that longer-term revaluation plays are still favored and analysts are now looking to future events that might trigger action by China to let the yuan appreciate.

One-month dollar-yuan NDFs narrowed to a discount as small as 650 Monday from last week’s historic wide level of 1100, indicating that market participants view the chance of a rise in the yuan as much smaller than it was a week ago.

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